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| The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number 641739. |  |
Assessment of the impacts of extreme weather events
Based on the outputs coming from the climate predictions and the integrated analysis of the water cycle (hazard), BINGO assessed the risk associated with existing socio-economic activities, which results fed the risk treatment phase. The objective of this phase was the assessment of impacts of climate change extreme events scenarios of droughts and floods at the research sites, based on the risk assessment procedure from ISO 31000. It established indicators designed to identify scenarios that require the anticipation of strategic management measures, focusing on the impacts on human activities, namely: water and energy supply, public health, agriculture, tourism and urban activities.
Aligned with RMP (ISO 31000:2009), risk assessment includes hazard identification, namely identification of risk sources and risk factors and set up events for which risks are evaluated. Using a risk approach, both likelihood and severity of impacts of the designed events risks are evaluated.
In BINGO, three steps of risk assessment were performed: risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. The latter provided the decision on which risks need treatment, based on the comparison of results from risk analysis with previously set criteria. Prior to risk assessment, the context of risk analysis was established in close cooperation with the research sites’ end users, providing the basis for risk evaluation. The assessment of the impacts of extreme weather events was also fed through workshops with stakeholders.
Establishment of the context for Risk Management Processes
The establishment of the context aimed to setup a common and clear understanding of all important factors at each research site, taking into consideration the end user’s views for the choice of criteria and methodologies. The following activities were performed for each research site in strong connection with local stakeholders:
- Setting the scope, extent and specific focus of risk management (such as protection of public health and safety, of the environment, of key economic activities; spatial scales and level of detail at key systems).
- Compiling formal requirements (European, national, regional legislation or regulations, standards, codes of practices, etc.).
- Understanding the internal context, including anything that could influence the way in which risk would be managed (such as clearly understand the role of each participant, relationships and perceptions of end users and culture).
- Defining the context for risk assessment (e.g. risk management activities of the end users; responsibilities and authorities; resources: financial, personnel, etc. allocated to risk management; risk assessment methods and tools to be used)
- Setting criteria for risk assessment, deciding on the criteria used in the estimation and evaluation of risk, depending on specific conditions at each site.
Risk identification
Risk identification described the risks of extreme weather events at site. The relevant hazards were identified, as well as their risk sources (sources of uncertainty) and risk factors (related to vulnerabilities). The possible effect of climate change trends was assessed; scenarios and potential events were explored - climate change may affect existing hazards, or may lead to new ones, for each site.
Risk analysis and evaluation
The risk analysis and evaluation assessed the likelihood and consequences for each event; estimated the level of risk for each event (based on criteria previously defined); evaluated risk for each event; and compared and reassessed estimated risks.
To screen priority risks, simpler methods (e.g. likelihood-consequence matrix) were used.
What was achieved?
- Risks were evaluated considering each key sector and objective and then were reassessed integrating all key activities and objectives of analysis. Conflicting uses from different end users were identified.
- The main outputs were tolerance levels acceptability discussion, vulnerabilities identification and grading, the extent to which Climate Change related hazards associated with decadal predictions increase the risk on socio-economic activities and people safeguard at each research site.
- Warning and action indicators were suggested in order to identify progression of Climate Change and the adequate time to implement certain adaptation measures.
BINGO Partners
The BINGO project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under the Grant Agreement number 641739.
The project is coordinated at European level by Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC, Portugal).
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