In Portugal the last three-year period was an atypical dry one, in a sense that although only one hydrological year’s rainfall totals was considered dry, the dry sequence itself stretch over two hydrological years and its correspondent recharge periods (from December 2016 to February 2018).
The duration curves developed for the main water resource to Lisbon central and suburban areas (the Zêzere basin) based on the climate replicas for the period 2015-2024 are a good tool to assess the peculiar nature of the drought period experienced recently.
Based on the analysis of such curves (Figure bellow) it is possible to establish that although the driest observed values are higher than the range simulated on BINGO on 50% of the average yearly duration, the flows corresponding to the wet values (with 1/3 of the average yearly duration) were either equal or lower than expected in the simulated range values.
One must bear in mind that the time frame of 3-yr from the sample sequence bears not the same statistical significance as the 10-yr sequence replicas used in simulation.
In Tagus, the CoP has been working together now for almost 4 years, looking at BINGO's resultsfor the research site, understanding them in their own context and trying to come up with solutions. Check out the aftermath in this video: